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Estimating future glacier runoff peaks at hourly time scales
Due to glacier retreat, changes in future water yields from high-alpine basins are expected. These changes are of concern to different actors, including e.g. hydropower companies. This thesis will investigate two methods for downscaling future projections of glacier runoff to the hourly time scale.
Driven by ongoing climatic change, glaciers are retreating fast. This causes, amongst others, changes in the amount of water that can be expected from glacierized basins in the future. Such changes are of relevance to hydropower operators, for example, since the corresponding water amounts are pivotal for their electricity production. In this context, changes are relevant at a variety of time scales: whilst long-term changes occurring in total water amounts are important for strategic decisions (e.g. can a given basin still be used for hydropower production in 40 years’ time?), also changes affecting shorter time scales can be important (e.g. will a given water intake still be able to handle possible runoff peaks?).
Driven by ongoing climatic change, glaciers are retreating fast. This causes, amongst others, changes in the amount of water that can be expected from glacierized basins in the future. Such changes are of relevance to hydropower operators, for example, since the corresponding water amounts are pivotal for their electricity production. In this context, changes are relevant at a variety of time scales: whilst long-term changes occurring in total water amounts are important for strategic decisions (e.g. can a given basin still be used for hydropower production in 40 years’ time?), also changes affecting shorter time scales can be important (e.g. will a given water intake still be able to handle possible runoff peaks?).
The goal of this thesis is to investigate the performance of two different methodologies that have been proposed for downscaling future projections of glacier runoff to the hourly time scale. The work will be based on both model results from the Glacier Runoff Evolution Model (GERM) and time series of measured runoff from selected glacierized basins. The two downscaling procedures will include a statistical method developed in house, and a procedure based on so-called “analogues”. By determining the performance of the two methods and investigating their applicability in different settings, the final aim is to support hydropower companies in the long-term planning of their infrastructure and operations.
The goal of this thesis is to investigate the performance of two different methodologies that have been proposed for downscaling future projections of glacier runoff to the hourly time scale. The work will be based on both model results from the Glacier Runoff Evolution Model (GERM) and time series of measured runoff from selected glacierized basins. The two downscaling procedures will include a statistical method developed in house, and a procedure based on so-called “analogues”. By determining the performance of the two methods and investigating their applicability in different settings, the final aim is to support hydropower companies in the long-term planning of their infrastructure and operations.
For further information please contact Ms. Jane Walden (walden@vaw.baug.ethz.ch) or Prof. Daniel Farinotti (daniel.farinotti@ethz.ch).
For further information please contact Ms. Jane Walden (walden@vaw.baug.ethz.ch) or Prof. Daniel Farinotti (daniel.farinotti@ethz.ch).