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Modeling of Derna dam failure and resulting flood wave
The failure of the Bu Mansour Dam in 2023 produced a flood that was devastating to the city of Derna, Libya. Unfortunately, the failure process and the magnitude of the flood discharge remain uncertain. The purpose of this thesis will be to model a potential dam failure mode, simulate the downstream routing of the resulting flood, and assess the flood intensity in the city.
Keywords: Dam breach, numerical modeling, flood routing, hydraulic engineering
The Bu Mansour Dam was a large zoned earthen embankment dam on the Wadi Derna, approximately 16 km upstream of the city of Derna, Libya. In September of 2023, the dam was overwhelmed by inflow due to intense rainfall. The dam ultimately failed, producing a massive flood that was catastrophic to the city of Derna. The process of failure remains uncertain, but one plausible theory is that the dam was overtopped, causing the downstream portion of the dam to erode, and thus destabilizing the core. The core eventually broke, creating a large breach that resulted in a large flood wave. The flood wave quickly propagated downstream, soon hitting Derna with devastating power and inundation. Better understanding of this series of events is crucial for future improvement of dam breach modelling, flood risk management, and emergency operations.
Start date: 22.09.2025.
Language of thesis: English.
The Bu Mansour Dam was a large zoned earthen embankment dam on the Wadi Derna, approximately 16 km upstream of the city of Derna, Libya. In September of 2023, the dam was overwhelmed by inflow due to intense rainfall. The dam ultimately failed, producing a massive flood that was catastrophic to the city of Derna. The process of failure remains uncertain, but one plausible theory is that the dam was overtopped, causing the downstream portion of the dam to erode, and thus destabilizing the core. The core eventually broke, creating a large breach that resulted in a large flood wave. The flood wave quickly propagated downstream, soon hitting Derna with devastating power and inundation. Better understanding of this series of events is crucial for future improvement of dam breach modelling, flood risk management, and emergency operations. Start date: 22.09.2025. Language of thesis: English.
The goal of this thesis is to perform a full 3-step dam breach analysis of the Bu Mansour dam breach. The project will begin with (i) modeling of the zoned dam failure by applying a recently developed method for parametric simulation of the breaching of zoned dams due to overtopping, which will produce a flood discharge hydrograph. The next step will be (ii) numerical hydraulic modeling of the downstream propagation of the flood hydrograph, using the BASEMENT software. The final step will be to (iii) assessing the flood impact to the city of Derna based on flow velocity, inundation depths, and flood arrival times, in order to map the flood intensity and extents. Modeling will be assessed and improved based on comparison with observations of the actual inundation and flood intensity. This project will be a valuable test case for the new parametric simulation method and for the workflow of simulating dam failure with BASEMENT.
Previous experience with numerical modeling would be beneficial.
The goal of this thesis is to perform a full 3-step dam breach analysis of the Bu Mansour dam breach. The project will begin with (i) modeling of the zoned dam failure by applying a recently developed method for parametric simulation of the breaching of zoned dams due to overtopping, which will produce a flood discharge hydrograph. The next step will be (ii) numerical hydraulic modeling of the downstream propagation of the flood hydrograph, using the BASEMENT software. The final step will be to (iii) assessing the flood impact to the city of Derna based on flow velocity, inundation depths, and flood arrival times, in order to map the flood intensity and extents. Modeling will be assessed and improved based on comparison with observations of the actual inundation and flood intensity. This project will be a valuable test case for the new parametric simulation method and for the workflow of simulating dam failure with BASEMENT. Previous experience with numerical modeling would be beneficial.
For further information please contact Dr. Matthew Halso (halso@vaw.baug.ethz.ch).
For further information please contact Dr. Matthew Halso (halso@vaw.baug.ethz.ch).
