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Is Reducing Livestock Populations Necessary for Achieving Low-Emission Agriculture?
Livestock farming is the largest contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions within agriculture, raising the question of whether reducing livestock populations is essential for achieving low-emission agriculture. This thesis examines whether such reductions are a necessary condition and identifies bottleneck levels of livestock counts for given GHG emission targets. Using Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA), the research also explores the potential of alternative mitigation strategies, such as feed optimization, manure management, and technological innovations.
Keywords: Climate Change Mitigation, Livestock Farming, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Low-Carbon Agriculture, Sustainable Food Systems
Agriculture is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, accounting for approximately 11% of total global emissions, with livestock farming being the largest source within the sector (Ritchie et al., 2024). Achieving climate targets requires substantial reductions in agricultural emissions, prompting discussions on effective mitigation strategies. Various measures, such as feed optimization, manure management, and technological innovations, have been proposed to reduce emissions from livestock farming—particularly cattle (Garnett, 2009; Herrero et al., 2016). However, a key question remains: Are these strategies sufficient to achieve low-emission agriculture, or is a reduction in livestock numbers necessary?
Recent policy initiatives, such as government buyout schemes aimed at decreasing livestock populations, have intensified this debate (Boezeman et al., 2023). Reducing livestock numbers and the consumption of livestock products is increasingly considered a potential pathway to lowering agricultural emissions. This thesis seeks to assess whether such reductions are a necessary condition for achieving low-emission agriculture and, if so, which types of livestock are most critical in this regard.
Using Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA ), this research systematically evaluates the role of livestock reduction in achieving climate goals and identifies key bottlenecks in the transition to a more climate-friendly agricultural system. NCA is an easily implementable method used to identify conditions that must be met for a specific outcome, as the outcome cannot occur without them.
The analysis can be approached from different perspectives, including global, regional (e.g., Europe), or national (e.g., Switzerland) datasets. The specific scope and dataset selection are subject to discussion and can be determined together with the student.
Agriculture is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, accounting for approximately 11% of total global emissions, with livestock farming being the largest source within the sector (Ritchie et al., 2024). Achieving climate targets requires substantial reductions in agricultural emissions, prompting discussions on effective mitigation strategies. Various measures, such as feed optimization, manure management, and technological innovations, have been proposed to reduce emissions from livestock farming—particularly cattle (Garnett, 2009; Herrero et al., 2016). However, a key question remains: Are these strategies sufficient to achieve low-emission agriculture, or is a reduction in livestock numbers necessary? Recent policy initiatives, such as government buyout schemes aimed at decreasing livestock populations, have intensified this debate (Boezeman et al., 2023). Reducing livestock numbers and the consumption of livestock products is increasingly considered a potential pathway to lowering agricultural emissions. This thesis seeks to assess whether such reductions are a necessary condition for achieving low-emission agriculture and, if so, which types of livestock are most critical in this regard. Using Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA ), this research systematically evaluates the role of livestock reduction in achieving climate goals and identifies key bottlenecks in the transition to a more climate-friendly agricultural system. NCA is an easily implementable method used to identify conditions that must be met for a specific outcome, as the outcome cannot occur without them. The analysis can be approached from different perspectives, including global, regional (e.g., Europe), or national (e.g., Switzerland) datasets. The specific scope and dataset selection are subject to discussion and can be determined together with the student.
This thesis aims to determine whether reducing livestock populations is a necessary condition for achieving low-emission agriculture. If so, it seeks to identify bottleneck levels of livestock counts for given levels of greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, the research will explore various scenarios incorporating feeding strategies, manure management, and technological innovations to assess their potential in mitigating emissions while maintaining current livestock production levels.
**Literature**
Boezeman, D., De Pue, D., Graversgaard, M., & Möckel, S. (2023). Less Livestock in North‐western Europe? Discourses and Drivers Behind Livestock Buyout Policies. EuroChoices, 22(2), 4–12. https://doi.org/10.1111/1746-692X.12399
Dul, J. (2021). Advances in Necessary Condition Analysis. https://bookdown.org/ncabook/advanced_nca2/.
Garnett, T. (2009). Livestock-related greenhouse gas emissions: Impacts and options for policy makers. Environmental Science & Policy, 12(4), 491–503. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2009.01.006
Herrero, M., Henderson, B., Havlík, P., Thornton, P. K., Conant, R. T., Smith, P., Wirsenius, S., Hristov, A. N., Gerber, P., Gill, M., Butterbach-Bahl, K., Valin, H., Garnett, T., & Stehfest, E. (2016). Greenhouse gas mitigation potentials in the livestock sector. Nature Climate Change, 6(5), 452–461. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2925
Ritchie, H., Rosado, P., & Roser, M. (2024). Breakdown of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions by sector. Our World in Data.
This thesis aims to determine whether reducing livestock populations is a necessary condition for achieving low-emission agriculture. If so, it seeks to identify bottleneck levels of livestock counts for given levels of greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, the research will explore various scenarios incorporating feeding strategies, manure management, and technological innovations to assess their potential in mitigating emissions while maintaining current livestock production levels.
**Literature**
Boezeman, D., De Pue, D., Graversgaard, M., & Möckel, S. (2023). Less Livestock in North‐western Europe? Discourses and Drivers Behind Livestock Buyout Policies. EuroChoices, 22(2), 4–12. https://doi.org/10.1111/1746-692X.12399
Dul, J. (2021). Advances in Necessary Condition Analysis. https://bookdown.org/ncabook/advanced_nca2/. Garnett, T. (2009). Livestock-related greenhouse gas emissions: Impacts and options for policy makers. Environmental Science & Policy, 12(4), 491–503. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2009.01.006
Herrero, M., Henderson, B., Havlík, P., Thornton, P. K., Conant, R. T., Smith, P., Wirsenius, S., Hristov, A. N., Gerber, P., Gill, M., Butterbach-Bahl, K., Valin, H., Garnett, T., & Stehfest, E. (2016). Greenhouse gas mitigation potentials in the livestock sector. Nature Climate Change, 6(5), 452–461. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2925
Ritchie, H., Rosado, P., & Roser, M. (2024). Breakdown of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions by sector. Our World in Data.
Christian Stetter (cstetter@ethz.ch), Robert Finger (rofinger@ethz.ch)
Christian Stetter (cstetter@ethz.ch), Robert Finger (rofinger@ethz.ch)
