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Decoupling or delusion: Can Europe's agricultural production grow while its greenhouse gas emissions shrink?
Europe’s agriculture targets carbon neutrality by 2050, but global greenhouse gas emissions are still rising. Agriculture, a major contributor, faces a dilemma: meeting growing demand clashes with reducing emissions. Decoupling production from emissions is proposed as a solution, but its feasibility is debated. This thesis investigates decoupling in European agriculture using statistical analysis to identify regional decoupling trajectories and their success factors.
Keywords: Climate change, decoupling, green growth, European agriculture
Agri-environmental policies in Europe like the EU's Green Deal aim to make Europe the first carbon-neutral continent by 2050. Despite this ambition and the Paris Agreement's target of limiting global warming to below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels, greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise worldwide. Agriculture is a major contributor to climate change necessitating efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions within the food system to align with climate targets (Clark et al., 2020). At the same time, the global demand for food, fiber and bioenergy derived from agricultural activities is steadily growing. Consequently, there is a pressing need to increase agricultural production to meet these growing demands (Bennetzen et al., 2016).
This presents a possible dilemma : the imperative to boost food production may clash with the imperative to reduce GHG emissions. A proposed solution discussed in this context is the concept of decoupling production from GHG emissions (Tapio, 2005). There has been an ongoing debate regarding whether environmental impacts, such as carbon emissions and natural resource use, can be separated from economic growth (2020; Parrique et al., 2019; Ward et al., 2016). Decoupling can happen in two ways: relative, when economic growth outpaces emissions growth, and absolute, when emissions decrease even as production continues to grow.
Working knowledge of R is expected.
**References:**
Bennetzen, E. H., Smith, P., & Porter, J. R. (2016). Decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from global agricultural production: 1970-2050. Global Change Biology, 22(2), 763–781. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13120
Clark, M. A., Domingo, N. G. G., Colgan, K., Thakrar, S. K., Tilman, D., Lynch, J., Azevedo, I. L., & Hill, J. D. (2020). Global food system emissions could preclude achieving the 1.5° and 2°C climate change targets. Science, 370(6517), 705–708. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba7357
Haberl, H., Wiedenhofer, D., Virág, D., Kalt, G., Plank, B., Brockway, P., Fishman, T., Hausknost, D., Krausmann, F., Leon-Gruchalski, B., Mayer, A., Pichler, M., Schaffartzik, A., Sousa, T., Streeck, J., & Creutzig, F. (2020). A systematic review of the evidence on decoupling of GDP, resource use and GHG emissions, part II: Synthesizing the insights. Environmental Research Letters, 15(6). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab842a
Parrique, T., Barth, J., Briens, F., Kerschner, C., Kraus-Polk, A., Kuokkanen, A., & Spangenberg, J. H. (2019). Decoupling debunked. Evidence and Arguments against Green Growth as a Sole Strategy for Sustainability. A Study Edited by the European Environment Bureau EEB.
Phillips, P. C. B., & Sul, D. (2007). Transition modeling and econometric convergence tests. Econometrica, 75(6), 1771–1855. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2007.00811.x
Tapio, P. (2005). Towards a theory of decoupling: degrees of decoupling in the EU and the case of road traffic in Finland between 1970 and 2001. Transport Policy, 12(2), 137–151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2005.01.001
Ward, J. D., Sutton, P. C., Werner, A. D., Costanza, R., Mohr, S. H., & Simmons, C. T. (2016). Is decoupling GDP growth from environmental impact possible? PLoS ONE, 11(10), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0164733
Agri-environmental policies in Europe like the EU's Green Deal aim to make Europe the first carbon-neutral continent by 2050. Despite this ambition and the Paris Agreement's target of limiting global warming to below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels, greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise worldwide. Agriculture is a major contributor to climate change necessitating efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions within the food system to align with climate targets (Clark et al., 2020). At the same time, the global demand for food, fiber and bioenergy derived from agricultural activities is steadily growing. Consequently, there is a pressing need to increase agricultural production to meet these growing demands (Bennetzen et al., 2016). This presents a possible dilemma : the imperative to boost food production may clash with the imperative to reduce GHG emissions. A proposed solution discussed in this context is the concept of decoupling production from GHG emissions (Tapio, 2005). There has been an ongoing debate regarding whether environmental impacts, such as carbon emissions and natural resource use, can be separated from economic growth (2020; Parrique et al., 2019; Ward et al., 2016). Decoupling can happen in two ways: relative, when economic growth outpaces emissions growth, and absolute, when emissions decrease even as production continues to grow.
Working knowledge of R is expected.
**References:**
Bennetzen, E. H., Smith, P., & Porter, J. R. (2016). Decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from global agricultural production: 1970-2050. Global Change Biology, 22(2), 763–781. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13120
Clark, M. A., Domingo, N. G. G., Colgan, K., Thakrar, S. K., Tilman, D., Lynch, J., Azevedo, I. L., & Hill, J. D. (2020). Global food system emissions could preclude achieving the 1.5° and 2°C climate change targets. Science, 370(6517), 705–708. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba7357
Haberl, H., Wiedenhofer, D., Virág, D., Kalt, G., Plank, B., Brockway, P., Fishman, T., Hausknost, D., Krausmann, F., Leon-Gruchalski, B., Mayer, A., Pichler, M., Schaffartzik, A., Sousa, T., Streeck, J., & Creutzig, F. (2020). A systematic review of the evidence on decoupling of GDP, resource use and GHG emissions, part II: Synthesizing the insights. Environmental Research Letters, 15(6). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab842a
Parrique, T., Barth, J., Briens, F., Kerschner, C., Kraus-Polk, A., Kuokkanen, A., & Spangenberg, J. H. (2019). Decoupling debunked. Evidence and Arguments against Green Growth as a Sole Strategy for Sustainability. A Study Edited by the European Environment Bureau EEB.
Phillips, P. C. B., & Sul, D. (2007). Transition modeling and econometric convergence tests. Econometrica, 75(6), 1771–1855. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2007.00811.x
Tapio, P. (2005). Towards a theory of decoupling: degrees of decoupling in the EU and the case of road traffic in Finland between 1970 and 2001. Transport Policy, 12(2), 137–151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2005.01.001
Ward, J. D., Sutton, P. C., Werner, A. D., Costanza, R., Mohr, S. H., & Simmons, C. T. (2016). Is decoupling GDP growth from environmental impact possible? PLoS ONE, 11(10), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0164733
This master thesis aims to empirically investigate the extent of decoupling of production and GHG emissions in European agriculture at the regional level over the past decades. To this end, regional data from all over Europe is used. It uses econometric analysis and the concept of Tapio elasticities (Tapio, 2005). Additionally, the thesis seeks to identify clusters of regions exhibiting similar decoupling trajectories through transition modeling (Phillips & Sul, 2007). This approach enables the analysis of the characteristics and policy approaches of each cluster to comprehend their respective success or failure factors.
This master thesis aims to empirically investigate the extent of decoupling of production and GHG emissions in European agriculture at the regional level over the past decades. To this end, regional data from all over Europe is used. It uses econometric analysis and the concept of Tapio elasticities (Tapio, 2005). Additionally, the thesis seeks to identify clusters of regions exhibiting similar decoupling trajectories through transition modeling (Phillips & Sul, 2007). This approach enables the analysis of the characteristics and policy approaches of each cluster to comprehend their respective success or failure factors.
Christian Stetter(cstetter@ethz.ch), Robert Finger (rofinger@ethz.ch)
Christian Stetter(cstetter@ethz.ch), Robert Finger (rofinger@ethz.ch)