Register now After registration you will be able to apply for this opportunity online.
Beyond Targets: Assessing the Real-World Impact of Europe’s Climate Policies in Agriculture
This master's thesis aims to explore whether there have been abrupt shifts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture in Europe, and if so, whether these changes correspond with policy interventions. Given the Europe’s ambitious emissions reduction targets and the significant contribution of agriculture to climate change, the study seeks to employ break-detection methods to assess the effectiveness of agricultural policies in mitigating GHG emissions. The results could potentially guide policymakers toward more effective strategies for aligning agricultural practices with climate targets set forth in initiatives like the European Green Deal.
Keywords: Climate change mitigation, break-detection, policy assessment, European agriculture
European countries set ambitious emissions reduction targets. For example, the European Union has set ambitious emissions targets. To achieve the goal of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 55% by 2030 (compared to 1990 levels), the European Commission initiated the European Green Deal with the aim of making Europe the first continent to achieve climate neutrality, reaching net-zero GHG emissions by 2050 (Wolf et al., 2021).
Agriculture is a major contributor to climate change necessitating efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions within the food system to align with set climate targets (Clark et al., 2020). For example, in 2021, emissions from agriculture accounted for 11% of total GHG emission in the EU. At the same time, policymakers have a wide range of tools at their disposal aimed at curbing agricultural emissions, from financial incentives to regulatory measures (Hasler et al., 2022). However, there is still considerable uncertainty about which (mixes of) policy interventions are effective in reducing GHG emissions from agriculture.
One way to evaluate such policies is to test whether a known intervention has been effective in achieving its goals (Pretis, 2022). This thesis takes on another angle instead. It seeks to identify structural breaks in GHG emissions first, and then tries to attribute detected emission breaks (policy effects) that occurred during the identified time periods (Koch et al., 2022). This approach enables the assessment of the potential effectiveness of policy mixes and not only single policies. The results could potentially guide policymakers toward more effective strategies for aligning agricultural practices with climate targets set forth in initiatives like the European Green Deal.
Working knowledge of R is expected.
**References:**
Clark, M. A., Domingo, N. G. G., Colgan, K., Thakrar, S. K., Tilman, D., Lynch, J., Azevedo, I. L., & Hill, J. D. (2020). Global food system emissions could preclude achieving the 1.5° and 2°C climate change targets. Science, 370(6517), 705–708. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba7357
Hasler, B., Termansen, M., Nielsen, H. Ø., Daugbjerg, C., Wunder, S., & Latacz-Lohmann, U. (2022). European Agri-environmental Policy: Evolution, Effectiveness, and Challenges. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 16(1), 105–125. https://doi.org/10.1086/718212
Koch, N., Naumann, L., Pretis, F., Ritter, N., & Schwarz, M. (2022). Attributing agnostically detected large reductions in road CO2 emissions to policy mixes. Nature Energy, 7(September). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-022-01095-6
Pretis, F. (2022). Does a Carbon Tax Reduce CO2 Emissions? Evidence from British Columbia. Environmental and Resource Economics, 83(1), 115–144. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-022-00679-w
Skjærseth, J. B. (2021). Towards a European Green Deal: The evolution of EU climate and energy policy mixes. International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, 21(1), 25–41. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10784-021-09529-4
Wolf, S., Teitge, J., Mielke, J., Schütze, F., & Jaeger, C. (2021). The European Green Deal — More Than Climate Neutrality. Intereconomics, 56(2), 99–107. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-021-0963-z
European countries set ambitious emissions reduction targets. For example, the European Union has set ambitious emissions targets. To achieve the goal of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 55% by 2030 (compared to 1990 levels), the European Commission initiated the European Green Deal with the aim of making Europe the first continent to achieve climate neutrality, reaching net-zero GHG emissions by 2050 (Wolf et al., 2021).
Agriculture is a major contributor to climate change necessitating efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions within the food system to align with set climate targets (Clark et al., 2020). For example, in 2021, emissions from agriculture accounted for 11% of total GHG emission in the EU. At the same time, policymakers have a wide range of tools at their disposal aimed at curbing agricultural emissions, from financial incentives to regulatory measures (Hasler et al., 2022). However, there is still considerable uncertainty about which (mixes of) policy interventions are effective in reducing GHG emissions from agriculture.
One way to evaluate such policies is to test whether a known intervention has been effective in achieving its goals (Pretis, 2022). This thesis takes on another angle instead. It seeks to identify structural breaks in GHG emissions first, and then tries to attribute detected emission breaks (policy effects) that occurred during the identified time periods (Koch et al., 2022). This approach enables the assessment of the potential effectiveness of policy mixes and not only single policies. The results could potentially guide policymakers toward more effective strategies for aligning agricultural practices with climate targets set forth in initiatives like the European Green Deal.
Working knowledge of R is expected.
**References:**
Clark, M. A., Domingo, N. G. G., Colgan, K., Thakrar, S. K., Tilman, D., Lynch, J., Azevedo, I. L., & Hill, J. D. (2020). Global food system emissions could preclude achieving the 1.5° and 2°C climate change targets. Science, 370(6517), 705–708. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba7357
Hasler, B., Termansen, M., Nielsen, H. Ø., Daugbjerg, C., Wunder, S., & Latacz-Lohmann, U. (2022). European Agri-environmental Policy: Evolution, Effectiveness, and Challenges. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 16(1), 105–125. https://doi.org/10.1086/718212
Koch, N., Naumann, L., Pretis, F., Ritter, N., & Schwarz, M. (2022). Attributing agnostically detected large reductions in road CO2 emissions to policy mixes. Nature Energy, 7(September). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-022-01095-6
Pretis, F. (2022). Does a Carbon Tax Reduce CO2 Emissions? Evidence from British Columbia. Environmental and Resource Economics, 83(1), 115–144. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-022-00679-w
Skjærseth, J. B. (2021). Towards a European Green Deal: The evolution of EU climate and energy policy mixes. International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, 21(1), 25–41. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10784-021-09529-4
Wolf, S., Teitge, J., Mielke, J., Schütze, F., & Jaeger, C. (2021). The European Green Deal — More Than Climate Neutrality. Intereconomics, 56(2), 99–107. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-021-0963-z
This master's thesis addresses the question whether there have been sudden changes in GHG emissions from agriculture in the EU, and if so, whether these align with policy interventions ? The goal is to utilize publicly available data of sectoral greenhouse gas emissions and state-of-the-art break-detection methodology (Koch et al., 2022) to investigate the effectiveness of agricultural policies in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Europe. Break detection in econometrics refers to identifying abrupt shifts or discontinuities in relationships between variables over time, often indicating structural changes or anomalies in the underlying economic processes. Through this approach, the thesis aims to identify successful policy (mixes) for reducing the climate impact of European agriculture.
This master's thesis addresses the question whether there have been sudden changes in GHG emissions from agriculture in the EU, and if so, whether these align with policy interventions ? The goal is to utilize publicly available data of sectoral greenhouse gas emissions and state-of-the-art break-detection methodology (Koch et al., 2022) to investigate the effectiveness of agricultural policies in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Europe. Break detection in econometrics refers to identifying abrupt shifts or discontinuities in relationships between variables over time, often indicating structural changes or anomalies in the underlying economic processes. Through this approach, the thesis aims to identify successful policy (mixes) for reducing the climate impact of European agriculture.
Christian Stetter (cstetter@ethz.ch), Robert Finger (rofinger@ethz.ch)
Christian Stetter (cstetter@ethz.ch), Robert Finger (rofinger@ethz.ch)