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Bottlenecks in Climate Change Adaptation for Arable Crop Farming
This master thesis examines the bottlenecks in climate change adaptation for arable crop farming, with a focus on the behavioral and socioeconomic factors. By analyzing survey data from 700 farms in Germany, it aims to identify the key barriers to effective uptake of adaptation measures and provide insights for developing more efficient and targeted strategies to enhance agricultural resilience to climate change.
Agriculture is widely regarded as one of the most vulnerable sectors to the adverse impacts of climate change, with arable farming being particularly susceptible. Projections suggest that these impacts will intensify in the coming decades, compelling farmers to adapt to an increasingly unpredictable climate. Over the years, various climate change adaptation strategies have been proposed, including diversification, conservation tillage, and crop insurance. While many farmers have already adopted a variety of these strategies to mitigate climate risks, the extent of adaptation varies significantly across farms.
Recent studies have highlighted the critical role that farmer characteristics and behavioral factors—such as risk tolerance, personality traits, and climate perceptions—play in shaping adaptation decisions. Understanding the conditions required for effective climate adaptation is essential for policymakers, farmers, and other stakeholders within the agricultural sector. By identifying the key bottlenecks that hinder adaptation, this research aims to facilitate the development of more targeted and efficient strategies, ultimately strengthening the sector's resilience to climate variability.
This thesis employs Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA) to systematically identify and evaluate the critical factors that must be present for successful uptake of climate adaptation measures in arable crop farming. NCA is an easily implementable method used to identify conditions that must be met for a specific outcome, as the outcome cannot occur without them.
Agriculture is widely regarded as one of the most vulnerable sectors to the adverse impacts of climate change, with arable farming being particularly susceptible. Projections suggest that these impacts will intensify in the coming decades, compelling farmers to adapt to an increasingly unpredictable climate. Over the years, various climate change adaptation strategies have been proposed, including diversification, conservation tillage, and crop insurance. While many farmers have already adopted a variety of these strategies to mitigate climate risks, the extent of adaptation varies significantly across farms. Recent studies have highlighted the critical role that farmer characteristics and behavioral factors—such as risk tolerance, personality traits, and climate perceptions—play in shaping adaptation decisions. Understanding the conditions required for effective climate adaptation is essential for policymakers, farmers, and other stakeholders within the agricultural sector. By identifying the key bottlenecks that hinder adaptation, this research aims to facilitate the development of more targeted and efficient strategies, ultimately strengthening the sector's resilience to climate variability. This thesis employs Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA) to systematically identify and evaluate the critical factors that must be present for successful uptake of climate adaptation measures in arable crop farming. NCA is an easily implementable method used to identify conditions that must be met for a specific outcome, as the outcome cannot occur without them.
This thesis aims at identifying key bottlenecks for climate change adaptation linked to behavioral and socioeconomic characteristics of farmers. This research will involve an econometric analysis of existing data from an online survey with 700 apprenticing farms in Germany.
**Literature**
Carter, C., Cui, X., Ghanem, D., & Mérel, P. (2018). Identifying the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 10(June), 361–380. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-100517-022938
Dessart, F. J., Barreiro-Hurlé, J., & Van Bavel, R. (2019). Behavioural factors affecting the adoption of sustainable farming practices: A policy-oriented review. European Review of Agricultural Economics, 46(3), 417–471. https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbz019
Dul, J. (2021). Advances in Necessary Condition Analysis. https://bookdown.org/ncabook/advanced_nca2/.
Moore, F. C., & Lobell, D. B. (2014). Adaptation potential of European agriculture in response to climate change. Nature Climate Change, 4(7), 610–614. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2228
This thesis aims at identifying key bottlenecks for climate change adaptation linked to behavioral and socioeconomic characteristics of farmers. This research will involve an econometric analysis of existing data from an online survey with 700 apprenticing farms in Germany.
**Literature**
Carter, C., Cui, X., Ghanem, D., & Mérel, P. (2018). Identifying the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 10(June), 361–380. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-100517-022938
Dessart, F. J., Barreiro-Hurlé, J., & Van Bavel, R. (2019). Behavioural factors affecting the adoption of sustainable farming practices: A policy-oriented review. European Review of Agricultural Economics, 46(3), 417–471. https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbz019
Dul, J. (2021). Advances in Necessary Condition Analysis. https://bookdown.org/ncabook/advanced_nca2/.
Moore, F. C., & Lobell, D. B. (2014). Adaptation potential of European agriculture in response to climate change. Nature Climate Change, 4(7), 610–614. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2228
Christian Stetter (cstetter@ethz.ch), Robert Finger (rofinger@ethz.ch)
Christian Stetter (cstetter@ethz.ch), Robert Finger (rofinger@ethz.ch)
